Russia’s neighbors are preparing for war (CIS countries and Georgia has surprised the world of increasing military expenditures)

Commonwealth countries and Georgia continue to amaze the world community to increase military spending. If the majority of developed countries such as USA, Britain, France, Germany and other NATO countries, their defense spending in 2011 reduced, then the former Soviet Union registered a record for the last five years, the growth of military budgets. Total military spending for national defense in the CIS and Georgia have increased compared to 2010 by 23% and account for nearly 60.6 billion dollars (see table on page 2).
Most CIS countries, as we know, can not boast of great successes in the economy. On average, the countries of the Commonwealth’s gross domestic product grew in 2010 to 4,5% (in Georgia - 5,5%). A similar average total GDP growth is expected in 2011.

Meanwhile, growth in military spending in these countries ahead of this figure is almost six times.

These facts suggest that, firstly, the former Soviet Union there is still a high probability of resumption and intensification of both internal and interstate wars. Therefore, apparently, the management of most former Soviet republics and increase defense spending. Secondly, the increase of military budgets suggests that some CIS countries have embarked on re-equipping the army with new types of armaments and military equipment (AME). This requires a significant investment, and indirectly suggests a possible preparation for some kind of military action. However, until now since the collapse of the Soviet Union in any of the post-Soviet countries (except the Baltics) radically re not happen, their armed forces use of IWT is mainly of Soviet era.

An exception to a certain extent are Georgia and Azerbaijan. The first of these countries due to rearm the United States and NATO, which, however, did not save her from defeat in a brief war against South Ossetia. The second is only preparing for military action, spending for the purchase of armaments and the development of the Army and Navy record, not only for the CIS resources. In Azerbaijan, military spending has increased from 1.59 billion dollars (3.95% of GDP) in 2010 to 3.1 billion dollars (6,2% of GDP) in 2011. In this case, according to Finance Minister Samir Rauf oglu Sharifov, in addition to purely military spending in 2011 to $ 1.36 billion will be spent on the needs of defense industry (OP). Thus, the total cost of the military budget and the OD of the country will be 4.46 billion, or 8.9% of GDP.

Relatively large sums of money spent on defense, and Armenia - 4,1% of GDP. Although quantitatively the costs by more than 10 times less than that spent on military expenditures of Azerbaijan. Note, however, that the military potential of Armenia grows and opportunities of Nagorno-Karabakh. This unrecognized republic’s defense spending at least $ 150 million, that is not less than 10% of its GDP. Given these factors, it is clear that there is a real possibility of another war in the South Caucasus.

22 February 2011

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