Suddenly, an orange is not a war. To a question about what happened a year ago.

On the night of 8 August 2008 started what later became known as "war 08.08.08" and "five-day war." It is natural that the interpretation of those events is the stumbling point of many disputes.

Note the following strange. First, all the international creditors Georgia naplevatelski refer to the fact that one third of the country's budget is spent on the army (you can compare with the terms of loans, which provided Russia in the 90-ies) that the country was pushing for the unleashing of armed conflict and continue to give loans . For example, in May 2008, in the midst of another crisis in Abkhazia have been successfully and quickly placed eurobonds in the amount of $ 500 million.

Second, noticeable that the amount of public debt and about the cost of the army after the "Rose Revolution".

And third, even part of the money spent on the army with more than enough on the actual reintegration of the country.

Fourth, manage the investment (even in the military) in the amount of $ 5 billion lunatics do not compromise.

The output from this can be done in a sense, one - the money given to Saakashvili at the army, regardless of the actual needs of the country, the army that was capable of something, the critical need to creditors, ie, for military confrontation with Russia.

At first glance, even with a small, albeit well-equipped and trained army (as it was then analysts) will still go to a military conflict with Russia suicidal. However, it is not so simple. This was to be not just war, and the "orange" war.

Established as a result of Georgian army was able to concentrate against Yu Ossetia 07 August 2008, about 10 army battalions (including 4 tank), composed of two brigades, special operations group and with the support artbrigady. One infantry brigade was in the area of Senaki, one brigade was in Iraq.

Deployed in the Russian and Ossetian Yu yugoosetinskie of critical yield Georgians quantify and, moreover, the Georgians had a huge advantage in heavy weaponry and the Tskhinvali region for the absolute lack of any opponents.

Sudden Impact on the night of 7 to 8 August 2008 following the announcement of a ceasefire, when VV Putin was in Beijing at the opening ceremony of the Olympics, Medvedev on vacation, but a reorganization of the Russian General Staff, laid on a very slow reaction of Russia. Considerable time was to be spent on the decision to join or is not a conflict, and require time to establish a group of troops. Considerable time was required in order to bring troops into Ossetia Yu.

In addition, emphasis was placed on the fact that the Russian army is much less efficient than the Georgian.

Thus, it was anticipated that within 1-2 days, all the territory Y. Ossetia will be under the control of Georgia, a few units of the Russian army would be split or linked battle the Georgian army, and then have to happen was the internationalization of the conflict. Would have been born, international observers and to record the new status quo.

This pawn move would put Russia in a very precarious situation.

First, the mass of exhausted, bitter yugoosetinskih Angry refugees would inevitably have been in S. Ossetia is already a hotbed of anti-sentiment (not to gain, not saved), which will inevitably be imposed on the Beslan complex and would create an extremely volatile situation.

Secondly, apparently used at the same time, in Ingushetia, the strategy of tension. Against the backdrop of smoldering Ossete-Ingush conflict, the situation threatens to become prohibitively dangerous.

And third, the situation in Abkhazia is now completely changed. Manual of Abkhazia was under strong pressure: he was offered a real choice of heavy-war ( "Russia will not protect") and reintegration into Georgia. If Russia out of Abkhazia, it would be difficult geopolitical defeat.

In - fourth, against the backdrop of the foregoing could not change the situation in Chechnya.

And against the backdrop of the Caucasus catastrophe we have been waiting for the autumn of 2008 - came in the acute phase of the global economic crisis.

Bonus: Video - Sergei Kurginyan opinion on the topic.

13 August 2009 | war

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