International crisis group: Georgia and Russia could launch a new war

International crisis group (ICG) issued a forecast which indicated that the expulsion of international observers from the UN and OSCE from Abkhazia and South Ossetia may increase tensions and lead to a new military confrontation in the Caucasus. According to the Brussels-based analytical group, increasing Russian military presence in the former Georgian autonomies, and Moscow's refusal to extend the mission of the UN and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, these regions represent a security threat. "The outbreaks of violence and the lack of an effective security regime in the conflict zone and adjacent areas in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, creating a dangerous situation which is fraught with the resumption of hostilities - indicated in the report ICG. - Russia does not fulfill the basic provisions of the Armistice Agreement, and both parties have not held talks that could stabilize the situation. " The group felt that the expulsion of UN monitors from Abkhazia might lead to the exodus to Georgia for about 40 thousand refugees - ethnic Georgians and Megrelia, keen sense of their vulnerability.

Last week Russia took advantage of the power of veto in the UN Security Council and has blocked the extension of the mission 130 observers in Abkhazia, citing the unacceptability of the notion of territorial integrity of Georgia. The OSCE has also not been able to achieve in the negotiations with Russia to extend the mandate of its military observers in South Ossetia, which should leave Georgia by 30 June. Russia insists that the OSCE observers in South Ossetia, worked separately from the mission of this organization in Georgia. If both the mission will leave the South Caucasus, the region will remain only 225 observers from the European Union, which ordered access to the breakaway republics, said Reuters.

23 June 2009 | antikrizis, icg, war

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